Washington/Beijing, October 11, 2025 —

U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a strong warning to China, threatening sweeping new tariffs in response to Beijing’s export restrictions on rare earth materials. Yet, despite the harsh rhetoric, the timing of his decision suggests he is leaving the door open for renewed trade negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Hours after cautioning Beijing about “massive” duties, Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports. However, the measure will not take effect until November 1, just two days after a planned meeting between the two leaders at the APEC Summit in South Korea. The delay signals a potential opening for compromise.

> “We’ll have to see what happens,” Trump told reporters when asked whether he might reconsider if China lifts its export curbs. “That’s why I made it November 1.”

A Calculated but Risky Move

While many in Washington’s policy circles expected an immediate escalation, Trump’s move appeared more calculated than impulsive. Some analysts say it reflects a familiar Trump tactic — delivering a strong message publicly while quietly seeking leverage for talks.

A former U.S. official, however, dismissed the decision as a sign of hesitation, describing it as another “TACO moment” — shorthand for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” Critics argue that Beijing will interpret the move as a sign of weakness rather than strategy.

“Xi will see this as a lack of resolve,” the former official said, suggesting the Chinese leadership now views the U.S. as a paper tiger unwilling to follow through on threats.

Rising Tensions Before the Summit

The new Chinese regulations, which require government approval for any foreign company exporting products containing rare earth elements, have disrupted what little progress remained in U.S.–China economic relations. These minerals are crucial for the global electronics and defense industries, making the controls a powerful bargaining tool for Beijing.

The White House, caught off guard by the timing — just weeks before the planned Trump–Xi meeting — responded sharply. Trump initially hinted at canceling the summit but later softened his tone.

“I haven’t canceled, but I don’t know that we’re going to have it,” he said. “I’ll be there regardless, so I would assume we might have it.”

Hawks in Washington Feel Vindicated

Inside the administration, Trump’s announcement was met with enthusiasm from China hawks — officials pushing for a harder stance on Beijing. “Christmas came early,” one senior official remarked, hoping the president’s frustration with China will finally lead to aggressive measures, such as sanctions, export bans, and trade blacklists targeting Chinese firms.

Their optimism recalls 2020, when Trump approved sweeping restrictions on Chinese tech companies after blaming Beijing for the COVID-19 outbreak.

> “The hawks must feel vindicated,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute. “They’ve watched Trump take a more conciliatory tone for months. Now they think the gloves might finally come off.”

Strategic Chess — or Emotional Reaction?

Experts remain divided on whether China overplayed its hand or if Trump’s reaction has fallen neatly into Beijing’s strategy.

Dennis Wilder, a former CIA China analyst, believes Xi anticipated Trump’s emotional response.

“Trump feels cornered and needs to show strength to his own advisors,” Wilder said. “Xi has raised the stakes in a geopolitical poker game — the question now is whether Trump folds or goes all in.”

As November approaches, both leaders are under pressure to protect their economies while maintaining political credibility at home. The world’s two largest economies appear headed for another high-stakes showdown, though neither side has yet closed the door on peace.